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correlated with mean maximum and absolute maximum air temperature, and that the total burning area is strongly negatively related to precipitation in the fire season. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS RASPRAVA I ZAKLJUČCI Changes in climatic conditions in the area of northeastern Serbia affect the increased risk of forest fires and represent a challenge for decision makers. Identifying periods of the year with a high degree of threat from forest fires is useful in making appropriate decisions. Understanding the connection between climate conditions and the time frequency forest fire occurence can be of great help to the competent services for forest fire protection. Years with pronounced high air temperatures and reduced amounts of precipitation have the highest number of forest fires. A markedly small number of forest fires occur in years with extremely wet conditions. Data analysis of monthly moisture index in the area of northeastern Serbia indicates that, based on a longer period of time, the most critical months of the year are July, August and September. In certain years, such as 2012, due to the lack of precipitation and high air temperatures, fires also occurred in March. The number of forest fires in the northeastern Serbia area was higher in areas at a lower altitude. The risk of fire is significantly higher in the area of Zaječar and Negotin than in the area of Crni Vrh. Based on the burning index occasional torching of tree crowns in the area of northeastern Serbia is possible during the months of July, August and September. The obtained results show a good correlation between the values of the burning index and the temporal distribution of fires. Based on the value of Spearman’s correlation coefficients, the medium intensity of correlation (r) and the coefficient of determination (R2) were determined, but not statistically significantly (p> 0.05). The results from this study can be used to develop forest protection plans and reduce the risk of forest fires in the future. It is necessary to continue research and look at geophysical and anthropogenic factors that can affect the occurrence of forest fires. REFERENCES LITERATURA Aguado, I., E.Chuvieco, R. Borén, H.Nieto, 2007: Estimation of dead fuel moisture content from meteorological data in Mediterranean areas. Applications in fire danger assessment. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 16(4), 390–397. doi: 10.1071/WF06136. Bonan, G., 2002: Ecological Climatology. Cambridge, U.K.: CUP. ISBN 0-521-80476-0. Burgan, R.E., 1979: Estimating live fuel moisture for the 1978 National Fire Danger Rating System. Research Paper INT-RP-226. USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. Ogden, Utah. 16 pp. Carvalho, A.C., A.Carvalho, H.Martins, C.Marques, A.Rocha, C. Borrego, D.X.Viegas, A.I. Miranda, 2011: Fire weather risk assessment under climate change using a dynamical downscaling approach. Environmental Modelling and Software 26(9),1123–1133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.03.012. Chandler, C., P.Cheney, P. Thomas, L.Trabaud, D.Williams, 1983: Fire in forestry. Vol. I, Forest Fire Behavior and Effects, John Wiley & Sons. Inc., Canada. Ćurić, M., S. Živanović, 2013: Dependence between Deficit and Surplus of Precipitation and Forest Fires. Disaster Advances 6(6), 64 - 69. de Angelis, A., C. Ricotta, M. Conedera, G.B. Pezzatti, 2015: Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions PLoS ONE 10 e0116875 Dimitrakopoulos, A., K.K. Papaioannou, 2001: Flammability assessment of Mediterranean forest fuels. Fire Technology, 37, 143–152. Flannigan, M.D., B.M.Wotton, G.A.Marshall, W.J. de Groot, J.Johnston, N.Jurko, A.S.Cantin, 2016: Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications.Climatic Change 134(1–2): 59–71. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1521-0. García, M., E. Chuvieco, H.Nieto, I. Aguado, 2008: Combining AVHRR and meteorological data for estimating live fuel moisture content, Remote Sensing of Environment, 112 (9), 3618-3627 Gaulton, R., F.M. Danson, F.A. Ramirez, O. Gunawan, 2013: The potential of dual-wavelength laser scanning for estimating vegetation moisture content. Remote Sensing of Environment, 132, 32-39 |