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IZVORNI ZNANSTVENI ČLANCI – ORIGINAL SCIENTIFIC PAPERSŠumarski list br. 9–10, CXXXV (2011), 477-486 UDK 630* 453 (Lymantria monacha) (001) OUTBREAKS OFTHE NUN MOTH (Lymantria monacha) AND HISTORICALRISK REGIONS IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC GRADACIJE SMREKOVOG PRELCA(Lymantria monacha) I PODRUČJA NJEGOVE UČESTALE POJAVE U ČEŠKOJ 1111 H. UHLÍKOVÁ, O. NAKLÁDAL, P. JAKUBCOVÁ, M. TURČÁNI ABSTRACT: The paper, based on a literature review, presents an overview of the nun moth outbreaks in Czech forests from 1784 to 2010. A database of outbreaks was created and presently contains 2,557 records. The oldest written record dates from 1784. The greatest calamity of nun moth outbreaks occurred during the years 1917–1927. The last nun moth outbreaks appeared in the years 1993–1996. A map of high-risk areas in the Czech Republic was created based on this historical data. Key words:Lymnatria monacha, historical outbreaks, Czech Republic 1. INTRODUCTION – Uvod The nun moth (Lymantria monacha/L./) is a strongly polyphagous pest feeding on coniferous and deciduous trees. Spruce (Piceasp.), larch (Larixsp.) and pine (Pinussp.) are typical host plants but the nun moth also causes extensive defoliation of other tree species during its outbreaks (Komárek1931, Schwenke1978). Although the phytophagous nun moth is considered one of the most damaging insects in European coniferous forests and can cause severe damage in managed forests (Altenkirch1986,Baier1995,Bejer1986, Cescatti & Battisti1992, Fischer1942, Grönblom &Suomalainen1950,Jahn1973,Pivetz et al. 1959,Klimetzek1979,Köhler1958,Nietsche 1891, Romanyk1958, Sedláček1911, Schimitschek1947, Schmutzenhoferet al. 1975, Sliwa& Sierpinski1986, Uhlíková& Nakládal2010, Wilke1931,Zederbauer1911), there are relatively few papers focusing on and evaluating general historical outbreaks. In the Czech Republic, there is currently no integral overview of nun moth outbreaks; we can usually find only short articles describing the progress and spread of the outbreaks (Blažek et al. 1932, Mokrý1923, Liška& Šrůtka1994). However,Švestka(1968) described a small review of nun moth outbreaks in southwestern Moravia. It is H.Uhlíková, O. Nakládal, P. Jakubcová, M.Turčáni Department of Forest Protection and Game Management, Faculty of Forestry andWood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic also possible to find an evaluation of the situation for prediction in a given year or following year (Liška 1996 and 1999,Liška&Šrůtka1995,Zahradník et al. 1995).Afundamental publication illustrating the largest outbreaks of the nun moth in the Czech Republic in the 1920s was published byKomárek(1931). Catastrophic damages to forests caused by the nun moth have been known in the past. Its first massive expansion in Central Europe was recorded in 1449.At least 26 significant periods of increase were recorded from that time until the late 19th century (Hošek 1981).Komárek(1931),Mokrý(1923) andBlažeket al. (1932) described disasters that occurred dur th ing the first half of the 20century. In the period 1946-1995, six outbreaks were recorded in Poland (Głowacka1996). In Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic, the nun moth outbreaks were observed in 1993–1995 (Baier, pers. comm., Głowacka 1996,Liš ka&Šrůtka1994). In 2003, the nun moth caused defoliation in Poland and Germany (Möler& Wenk,pers. comm., Wanneretal. 2005). More than 100 historical records were found in the th Czech Republic throughout the 20century (e.g. Anonymous a,Anonymous 1969a,Anonymous 1969b, Hošek1958, Hošek1959, Hošek& Žaloudík 1964, Hošek& Žaloudík1969, Kruml1962, Kruml1963,Kruml1968b,Ministr1964, Mini str1970, Novák1969b, Novák1969e, Novák 1970, Novotný1965, Schleger1974, Tlapák |
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H. Uhlíková, O. Nakládal, P. Jakubcová, M. Turčáni: OUTBREAKS OF THE NUN MOTH (Lymantria monacha) ...Šumarski list br. 9–10, CXXXV (2011), 477-486 1960,Tlapák1963,Tlapák1964, Tomandl1962,1962, Tlapák1965b, Tomandl1956, Tomandl Žaloudík1961). Extensive outbreaks and total defoli-1971).The largest calamity of the nun moth in the Czech ation were recorded mainly after 1900, and this situationRepublic was in the 1920s. In the Central Bohemian re- lasted more or less until 1940 (e.g.Anonymous b,Ano -gion, optimal conditions for nun moth development ny mous c, Anonymous d, Anonymous 1966, Horákwere created by reduced precipitation during the later 1960, Horák1965a, Horák1965b, Horák1968,years. Since 1996 there has been no other major outHorák1969, Hošek1961, Hošek1964, Hošekbreak. However, there aretraditional outbreak regions 1967, Hošek& Tomandl1965, Kruml1964b,withhigher population densities of the nun moth(the Kruml1968a,Kruml1969,Materna1964, Min-Brdy Hills and Bohemian-Moravian Highlands). istr a, Ministr b,Ministr1963,Novák1967b, No- In this paper, we present a quantitative and qualitavák 1967c, Novák1968a, Novák1968b, Novák tive historical overview of the available data on nun 1969a,Novák1969c,Novák1969d,Novák1972, moth outbreaks in the Czechlands. Schleger1966,Starec&Tlapák1959,Tlapák 2. MATERIALAND METHODS – Materijali i metode Historical data of the nun moth outbreaks Povijesni podaci o gradacijama smrekovog prelca During theperiod 2007–2010 a largeamountof his-ofthe Forest Management Institute (FMI) were the main toricalrecordsofnun moth outbreaks was collectedandsource ofinformation. It was necessary to visitthecenprocessed. Informationwasobtainedfrombooks, pro-tralarchive ofFMIplus itsbranchesin theCzechReceedings, journals, surveys, protocols, andalsofrompublicandcontacttheforestdistricts.The collected data recordsin the forest districts. Besides these writtencovered the period from 1784 up to 2010. We found records, oral interviews with foresters were also impor-more than 2.5 thousands of records.The main nun moth tant.The historicalessaysandsurveysfrom the archivesoutbreaks periods are inTable 1. Table 1Selected main periods of the nun moth outbreaks in the Czech Republic. Tablica 1.Odabrana glavna razdoblja gradacija smrekovog prelca u Češkoj Period/yearof outbreak Razdoblje/ godina gradacije Locality/ region Lokalitet/ područje Details Podrobnosti References Izvori 1784-1790Krukanicethe oldest written evidence of defoliation najstariji podatak o defolijaciji successful Tomandl (year unknown) Tomandl (nepoznata godina) 1785Doupov Mountainseradication (setting fires at night) uspješna eradikacija (paljenjem vatri noću) Schleger (1974) 1788-1790Carlsbad Highlandsthe oldest complete records of defoliation; heavy/P. abies/24 000 m 3 najstariji potpuni podatak o defolijaciji; jaka defolijacija/P. abies/24 000 m3 Ministr (1970) 1838-1840Rakovník, Křivoklát, Opařany P. sylvestrisKruml (1964a), Novák (1966) 1899Sokolíčkoheavy/36 ha jaka defolijacija/36 ha Horák (1987) 1892Žirovnice26 haKruml (1968b) 1901-1903all regions / sva područja autochthonous outbreaks in lower altitudes autohtone gradacije u nižim nadmorskim visinama Hošek (1981), Novák (1970) 1906-1910Ledeč n. Sázavou, Ronov n. Doubravou, Jindřichův Hradec region, theTřeboň region, Děčín, Frýdlant, Zákupy, Grábštejn, the Drahan Highlands, lower altitudes of the Jeseníky Mountains heavy/3 600 ha; ended through polyhedral disease jaka defolijacija/3 600 ha; okončana poliedrijom gusjenica Tomandl (1962) |
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H. Uhlíková, O. Nakládal, P. Jakubcová, M. Turčáni: OUTBREAKS OF THE NUN MOTH (Lymantria monacha) ...Šumarski list br. 9–10, CXXXV (2011), 477-486 Impartiality of the prediction and the smallest meanIsaaks& Srivastava(1989), Wackernagel square error of prediction (prediction variance) are en-(2003) andOlea(1999). sured. A more detailed description can be found in 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION – Rezultati i rasprava The first map (Fig. 1) shows spots (on the level of forest districts) where the nun moth occurred in relation to feeding intensity during the years 1784–2010 (the oldest written record comes from 1784).There are areas where the nun moth was recorded at least once. This map however, does not reflect the fact that the nun moth could occur there repeatedly. As can be seen, there are regions where the nun moth has never been recorded. It is mainly in south Moravia and the Šumava Mountains, upperparts ofthe Giant Mountains, part of the Labe Basin, theAš region, as well as others.The reason for the absence of this species was probably an absence of host plants (at lower elevations) or adverse climatic conditions (in high-elevation forests). The second map (Fig. 2) gives a better idea of which areas were attacked repeatedly. From a historicalview, the riskiestregions appear to be the Bohemian-Mora vian Highlands,Třeboň Basin, Brdy Hills, Nový Bor region and Opava region. In the long run, it shows that an optimum range of nun moth has shifted in the Czech Republic. Based on historical data, the Třeboň Basin (average altitude is 457 m a. s. l.) was determined as a risk region where the nun moth defoliated pine there, th mainly up to the end of the 19century (Anonymous 1967). Nowadays the hot spots do not arise in lower altitudes. On the contrary, the Brdy Hills (average altitude is 640 m a. s. l.) are attacked more than the historical data would indicate. It is obvious that the hot spots are shifting to the higher altitudes. Somedistortionin the mapis due to numerous records from the largest calamity of the nun moth in the Czech Republic in the 1920s.The nun moth has also occurred in the regions where there were not optimal conditions for development (with regard to altitude and climatic conditions). Figure 1 Location of the nun moth outbreaks (on the level of forest districts) in relation to feeding intensity in the Czech Republic (1784-2010). 4 – defoliation 70-100%, 3 – defoliation 25-70%, 2 – defoliation <25%, 1 – sporadic occurrence, . – not identified. Slika 1.Područja gradacija smrekova prelca (na prostornoj razini gospodarske jedinice) u odnosu na jačinu defolijacije u Češkoj (1784-2010). 4 – defolijacija 70-100%, 3 – defolijacija 25-70%, 2 – defolijacija <25%, 1 – sporadična pojava, . – jačina defolijacije nepoznata. |
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H. Uhlíková, O. Nakládal, P. Jakubcová, M. Turčáni: OUTBREAKS OF THE NUN MOTH (Lymantria monacha) ...Šumarski list br. 9–10, CXXXV (2011), 477-486 Period/yearof Locality/ outbreakregionDetailsReferences Razdoblje/Lokalitet/PodrobnostiIzvori godina gradacijepodručje 1917-1927Bohemia, west Moravia the greatest catastrophe of the nun moth in the Czech Republic;P. abies, P. sylvestris, L. decidua, A. alba, P. menziesii, broadleaves razdoblje najjače gradacije smrekova prelca u Češkoj;P. abies, P. sylvestris, L. decidua,A. alba, P. menziesii,listače Horák (1982), Hošek (1981), Hošek &Tomandl (1965), Komárek (1931), Novák (1966), Novák (1967a), Novák (1967b), Novák (1967c), Novák (1968b), Novák (1969a), Novák (1969e), Novák (1972), Novák (1975), Tlapák (1965a),Tlapák (1965b) 1931-1938Křivoklát, Milevsko, Světlá nad Sázavou, Nové Syrovice ended through polyhedral disease okončana poliedrijom gusjenica Hošek (1981), Novák (1966), Novák (1967b), Novák (1975) 1947Teplá, Sokolíčko52 000 m 3 Hošek (1981), Ministr (1970), Tlapák (1963) 1965-1967Náměšť n. Oslavou, Jaroměřice, Jemnice chemical spraying suzbijanje kemijskim insekticidima Hošek (1981), Švestka (1968) 1993-1996Hořovice, Zbiroh, Rájec,Tišnov, Brdy Hills, Jindřichův Hradec, Pacov, Jihlava, Trutnov, Dvůr Králové, Horní Maršov, Boskovice heavy/P. abies, L. decidua/34 000 ha; chemical spraying jaka defolijacija/P. abies, L. decidua/34 000 ha; suzbijanje kemijskim insekticidima Liška & Šrůtka (1998), Zahradník et al. (1995) Data processing– The database LYMONDATof nun moth outbreaks in the CzechRepublic was created onthe basis ofhistorical data survey. Today, there are2,557 records. The databasecontainsinformationincludingtheyearorperiod of occurrence, thelocation ofoutbreaks and extent of nun moth feeding, feeding level, volume of nun moth timber harvested, and information about host tree species, if it wasmentioned. Each period was divided into individual years for the purpose of digitalization. Information about defoliation levels in the primary resources isquitevariable(and sometimes very brief).Therefore,eachrecordwasassigned anintensity rating(ranging from1–4).Arating of 4indicates data where we knowthatthere was heavy defoliation (70–100%). A rating of 3 equals strong nun moth feeding (25–70%), 2 corresponds tolight feeding (less than 25%).Arating of1includes datawith a sporadicoccurrence ofnun moth. In some cases the feeding level was not identified. Using information from this database, two maps of feeding levels were created. In order to visualize the spatial distribution of individual records inArcGIS,WGS84 coordinates were assigned to individual records. Special care was taken to avoid duplication of records within one year. The first map is a simple map showing the feeding intensity in stands. For thepurposeof thisarticle,points of nun moth occurrence wererecorded on the level of forest districts. Obrada podataka For the second map we gave cumulative values to each point and subsequently, spatial interpolation using Ordinary Kriging was used to predict the risk outbreak regions of the nun moth.The correlation between source data, expressed in as a variogram, determines the estimated value at an unsampled location.The variogram is a function describing the degree of spatial dependence of data investigated. It is defined as the expected squared increment of the values between two locations (Wackernagel2003). Formally, this is given as: 1 N(h) 2 .(h) = .[z(xi)–z(xi + h)] 2N (h) i=1 wherez(xi) is variable at positionx,z(xi+h) denotes a variable separated by vector h (lag), with specified magnitude and direction. N(h) is the total number of pairs used to compute the value of the variogram for a specified lag. Ordinary Kriging is a univariate stationary technique for spatial interpolation.This is of the form: kk Z(x) =..iZ(xi)subject to..i=1 0 i=1i=1 where Z(x) is an estimator at site xgiven by the 00 linear combination of random variablesZ(xi) at sitesxi. |
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H. Uhlíková, O. Nakládal, P. Jakubcová, M. Turčáni: OUTBREAKS OF THE NUN MOTH (Lymantria monacha) ...Šumarski list br. 9–10, CXXXV (2011), 477-486 Figure 2 Spatial distribution of the nun moth outbreaks using Ordinary Kriging based on historical data (1784–2010).The observed values are cumulative values of feeding intensity. Red colour means regions with the highest feeding intensity (difference in ranges of observed and interpolated values are due to the smoothing effect of interpolation and its inability to reproduce extreme valuesin observed data in some cases). Slika 2.Prostorna distribucija gradacija smrekova prelca dobivena metodom običnog kriginga temeljenog na povijesnim podacima u razdoblju 1784. – 2010. g. Točkasti podaci predstavljaju kumulativne vrijednosti jačine defolijacije. Crvena boja označuje područja najjačih defolijacija (diskrepancija točkastih-opažanih defolijacija i obojanih-geostatistički izvedenih podataka, posljedica je izglađivanja uslijed interpolacije i nemogućnosti prikaza ekstremnih vrijednosti defolijacije u nekim slučajevima). There are areas where the nun moth damaged foreststhe nun moth particularly defoliated pine stands in lower only in 1920s (e.g. Jeseníky Mountains, Ostrava region,altitudes in the years 1830–1890 (Kruml 1964a, Novák th north part of Ore Mountains). 1966), at the end of the 19century and the beginning of th the 20century, the nun moth began to attack spruce Spruce, pine and larch are typical host plants. During (Anonymous 1951,Tlapák1965a). It shows a shift of a massive expansion, caterpillars have also fed onAbies optimum conditions for development towards the high sp., and broadleaves such as Quercussp., Fagussp., lands. Extensive planting of spruce monoculture also Carpinussp.,Betulasp.,Acersp.,Ulmussp.,Alnussp., contributes to the change of host plant. Tiliasp.,Salixsp. andPopulussp.(Komárek1931, Křístek& Urban2004). Rašek(1922) mentionsAn interesting fact is that the nun moth feeding that caterpillars are also able to defoliate clover fieldsbegan in larch stands and caused a total defoliation (Trifoliumsp.), Vaccinium myrtillus (L.), Calluna vul-there (Brdy Hills in 1993–1996) (Uhlíková & Nakládal garis(L.) in times of need. Defoliation ofFraxinussp2010), althoughKomárek(1931) mentions that the however, has never been recorded. Historical recordsnun moth does not feed in pure larch stands. show an important change of main host plant.Whereas 5. CONCLUSIONS – Zaključci The oldest written record of nun moth outbreaks was widespread.The last nun moth outbreaks appeared in the Czech Republic comes from 1784.The greatestin the years 1993–1996. calamity of the nun moth was during the years In the Czech Republic, there are regions where the 1917–1927, especially in Bohemia, where the damage nun moth has never caused damage to forests (e.g. |
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H. Uhlíková, O. Nakládal, P. Jakubcová, M. Turčáni: OUTBREAKS OF THE NUN MOTH (Lymantria monacha) ...Šumarski list br. 9–10, CXXXV (2011), 477-486 th south Moravia and the Šumava Mountains, upperparts ofthe Giant Mountains and others). Many large areas were defoliated only during the greatest catastrophe outbreak in the 1920s. From the forestry aspect, the most important areas are those where the nun moth has the most optimal conditions for development (primary outbreak foci). In these areas, the nun moth reproduces most regularly and the earliest within a givenarea.The Brdy Hills and the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands are such areas nowadays. A main host plant of the nun moth was pine to the beginning of 20century and spruce replaced it in the following decades. Vanhanenetal. (2007) shows that predicted climate change will affect the distributions of the nun moth by causing a range shift towards the pole. Based on our historical data it is evident that there has been a distribution shift from lower to higher elevations over the long term. This confirms the assumption that the distribution area is changing, and therefore the foresters should take thisinto account. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS – Zahvala This paper was written as part of the research project NAZVQH71094 “The using of dendrochronology for reconstruction of fluctuation patterns of nun moth and gypsy moth in central Europe”. The paper was also partly supported by the project CIGA(Czech University of Life Sciences Prague) “Factors influenced success of bark beetle (Ips typographus) attack of spruce stands”. Special thanks are due to Václav Pernégr and Pavel Frank (Hořovice Division, MilitaryForestsand Farms Brdy), Ivo Mühlhansl (Náměšť nad Oslavou forest district, Forests of the Czech Republic), Ladislav Kopřiva (Pelhřimov forest district, Forests of the Czech Repub lic), Josef Šefl (Strašice), Dominika Mansfeldová, Karel Pokorný, Vincenc Zlatník, Marie Benešová, Stanislav Carbol, Otakar Holuša,Vlasta Janatková (Forest Management Institute (in Czech ÚHÚL), Milan Švestka (senior researcher), Petr Šrůtka (Czech University of Agriculture Prague, Faculty of Forestry andWood Sciences) and Jan Liška (Forestry and Game Management Research Institute) for assistancein searching forhistorical data.We also thank Tomáš Hlásny (National Forest Centre, Forest Research Institute, Slovakia) for support with spatial data analysis. REFERENCES – Literatura Altenkirch,W.,1986: Die Nonne (Lymantria mo nac haL.) in Nordwestdeutschland 1977–1980. Anzeiger für Schädlingskunde, Pflanzenschutz, Umweltschutz 59(4): 67–74. Anonymous, 1951: LHC Jemnice LHP 1951–1960: Část I.-II,Všeobecná část. Lesprojekt, n. p., 95, Ždár n. Sázavou II a Brno. Anonymous, 1966: Všeobecná část LHC 1966–1975 LHC Želetava LZ Jemnice. ÚHUL Zvolen, pobočka Brno, 233, Brno. Anonymous, 1967: Historický průzkum lesů LHC Kardašova Řečice a Soběslav LZ Kardašova Řečice část 2. ÚHUL Brandýs n. L., pobočka České Budějovice, 163–365, Praha. Anonymous, 1969a:Všeobecná část LHP1968–1977 LHC Henčov LZ Henčov. ÚHUL Zvolen, pobočka Brno, 254, Brno. Anonymous, 1969b:Všeobecná část LHC 1968–1977 LHC Žákova Hora LZ Nové Město na Moravě. ÚHULZvolen, pobočka Brno, 300, Brno. Anonymous a, (year unknown): Historický průzkum lesů LHC Růžák aTěchlovice. ÚHULBrandýs n.L., 108, Praha. Anonymous b, (year unknown): Historický průzkum lesů LHC Sněžník. ÚHULBrandýs n. L., 88, Praha. Anonymous c, (year unknown): Historický průzkum lesů LHC Jetřichovice a Česká Kamenice. ÚHUL Zvolen, pobočka Jablonec n. Nisou, 106, Ja blo nec n. Nisou. Anonymous d, (year unknown): Historický průzkum lesů LHC Žandov. ÚHUL Zvolen, pobočka Jablonec n. Nisou, 66, Jablonec n. Nisou. Baier,U., 1995: Massenvermehrung von Lymantria monacha L. in den FichtenwäldernThüringens. Mitteilungen der Landesanstalt für Wald und Forstwirtschaft 9: 7–16. Bejer,B., 1986: Outbreaksofnunmoth(Lymantria monachaL.) in Denmark with remarks on their control.Anzeiger für Schädlingskunde, Pflan zen schutz, Umweltschutz 59 (5): 86–89. Blažek,F.,A.Dyk,F.Gercl, K.Irmann, J.Komárek, J.Malec, J. Mallat,A. Pfeffer, J. Rašek, J.Sekanina, J.Sigmond,F.Straňák, J.Škvařil, S. Voda, J. Vrabec,1932: Situační zpráva o mnišce za r. 1932. Knihtiskárna Petra Franka, 27,Tábor. Cescatti,A., A. Battisti,1992: Distribution and ecology ofLymantria monacha L. and Cephalcia ssp. in non-outbreak areas of Trentino Italy. Anzeiger für Schädlingskunde, Pflanzenschutz, Umweltschutz 65 (5): 92–99. Fischer,H., 1942: Die Massenvermehrung der Nonne in den Staatforsten des Regierungsbezirkes Gumbinnen 1897–1902. In: G.Wellenstein, Die Nonne in Ostpreussen (1933–1937). Monogr. Z. ang. Ent. 15: 17–41. Głowacka, B.1996:The nun moth (Lymantria mo nacha) as a pest of coniferous forests in Poland, |
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H. Uhlíková, O. Nakládal, P. Jakubcová, M. Turčáni: OUTBREAKS OF THE NUN MOTH (Lymantria monacha) ...Šumarski list br. 9–10, CXXXV (2011), 477-486 SAŽETAK: Smrekov prelac (Lymantria monacha) izraziti je polifag, čije se gusjenice hrane iglicama četinjača i lišćem mnogih listača. Smreka (Piceasp.), ariš (Larixsp.) i bor (Pinussp.) najčešće su napadnuti ovim štetnikom, ali jake defolijacije mogu se pojaviti i na drugim vrstama tijekom njegovih gradacija. U Hrvatskoj je rijedak i javlja se tek sporadično, podjednako u različitim šumskim sastojinama. Unatoč velikom broju dokumentiranih gradacija u Europi, mali je broj radova u kojima se analizira prostorno gledište njegove pojave. Prvi masovni napad smrekovog prelca zabilježen je u Središnjoj Europi 1449. godine. Do kraja 19. stoljeća zabilježeno je barem 26 značajnijih razdoblja njegovih gradacija. U Češkoj je evidentirano više od 100 pojava defolijacije smrekovog prelca tijekom 20. stoljeća. Izrazite i prostorno značajne gradacije bilježene su uglavnom nakon 1900. godine i takva je situacija potrajala do 1940. godine. Najveće kalamitete smrekov prelac uzrokovao je u Češkoj u dvadesetim godinama 20. stoljeća. Od 1996. do danas nisu zabilježene izrazitije gradacije. Različita učestalost pojave, kao i jačina defolijacije u pojedinim dijelovima teritorija, autorima rada bili su poticaj za pokušaj izrade prostorne analize i izrade karte povišenog rizika ovog defolijatora na području Češke. Koristeći metodu običnog kriginga, analizirali su i geostatistički obradili više od 2 500 izvornih povijesnih podataka defolijacija i gradacija smrekovog prelca na području Češke od 1784. do 2010. godine. Glavna razdoblja i područja masovne pojave i najžešćih gradacija prikazana su u Tabli ci 1. Intenzitet defolijacije preuzet iz brojnih literaturnih i ostalih izvora klasiran je u 4 kategorije (vidi sliku 1). Rezultat ovako klasiranih izvornih podataka prikazan je na dvije karte (slika 1 i slika 2). Na slici 1 prikazana je distribucija pojave i žestine defolijacije smrekovog prelca, svedeno prostorno na gospodarske jedinice. Na slici je vidljiva neujednačena distribucija registriranih defolijacija, kao i činjenica da u dijelu teritorija nikada nije zabilježena šteta od ovog defolijatora. Ovo se objašnjava izrazito nepovoljnim klimatskim uvjetima (visoka planinska područja) ili izostankom biljke domaćina (u nižim područjima). Jasno se uočavaju područja jakih gradacija (crvene točke). Na drugoj slici jasnije se razaznaje koja su područja napadnuta jače i češće (crve na boja). Također, autori dolaze do zaključka da je u promatranom razdoblju došlo do prostornog pomaka optimalnog područja pridolaska i gradacija smrekovog prelca. Taj se pomak dogodio u smislu povećanja nadmorske visine na kojima su se javljale gradacije. Na početku istraživanog razdoblja najžešće gradacije bilježene su na srednjoj nadmorskoj visini od 457 m n.m. Intenzitet i učestalost gradacija kasnije se javlja na srednjoj nadmorskoj visini od 640 m n.m. Autori zaključuju kako je očigledno kako se izvorišta gradacija “sele” na veće nadmorske visine. Također, analizom podataka utvrđeno je kako je glavna vrsta na “udaru” ovog defolijatora početkom 20. stoljeća bio bor, dok se u desetljećima koja su sljedila najveće štete bilježe na običnoj smreci. Dijelom se kao razlog tomu navode obimna pošumljavanja ovom, nekad popularnom šumskom vrstom drveća. Bez obzira na nedostatke kojih su autori svjesni u korištenju metode kriginga, zaključuju kako se ovim putem, zahvaljujući velikom broju podataka, može pokazati prostorna dinamika pojave smrekovog prelca na teritoriju Češke, uočiti “izvorišna područja” odakle započinju gradacije, kao i trend prostornog pomaka kojega povezuju s promijenjenim stanišnim uvjetima. Kao jedan od mogućih scenarija utemeljenih na recentnim klimatskim promjenama (povišenje temperature) navode pomicanje gradacijskih žarišta ovog važnog defolijatora Središnje Europe na veće nadmorske visine, odnosno više geografske širine. Prevedeno na naše geografsko područje, ovo bi značilo da bi smrekov prelac mogao postati još rjeđi u područjima gdje je i do sada bio prisutan u niskoj gustoći populacije. Ključne riječi:Lymantria monacha, povijest gradacija, Češka |