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ŠUMARSKI LIST 3-4/2000 str. 91     <-- 91 -->        PDF

T. Dimim» : BUDUĆI ŠUMSKI POŽARI U ODNOSU NA GLOBALNO ZATOPUHNJK Šumarski list hr. 3 4. (XXIV (2000). 203-209

Stocks, B. J.: 1996, The Extent and Impact of Forest A 1-G h an em, T.- World Meteorological Organizati-

Fires in Northern Circumpolar Countries, edited on: 16 December 1999, Global temperatures and

by Joel S. Levine, Yols. 1 & 2, the MIT Press, other global highlights (WMO-No. 644), 1211

Cambridge, Mass. & London, England. Geneva 2, Switzerland

Stocks et al.: 1998, Climate Change and Forest Fire
Potential in Russian and Canadian Boreal
Forests, Climate Change 38:1-13.

SUMMARY: Canada is continuing research on future wildfires in circumpolar
forests related to the global warmirig. In contrast to the research ofB. J.
Stocks and others (1996) in which climatic change and their impact on wildfires,
fire emission and effects on the atmosphere was analyzed by use of
monthly data from four models of the general circulation, in the most recent
research ofFlanningan and others (1998) daily data and just one model of the
general circulation (Canadian General Circulation Model - GCM) were used.

Daily data, rather than monthly data, were used because the weather and,
consequently, fire behavior can change dramatically over time periods much
shorter than a month. The simulation and fire history results suggest that the
impact of global warming on northern forests through forest fires may not be
disastrous and that, contrary to the expectation of an overall increase in forest
fires, there may be large regions of the Northern Hemisphere with a reduced
fire frequency.

In this paper the most essential parts from the study ofFlanningan and
others, titled "Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global
warming" will be presented together with an insight into the situation over
area of Croatia and Slovenia based on the enclosed maps simulating conditions
by the end of the new century (about A.D. 2100).

Key wo rds : Boreal forest, Climate model, Fire history, Global change.